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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Deep convection appears to have expanded out over the estimated
location of the low-level center a bit during the past few hours,
and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt based on a blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS
ADT. Overall, the intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with
moderate shear expected to persist for the next 2-3 days and then
increase further late in the period. Slow weakening is expected
during the first 24 to 36 hours, followed by little change in
intensity during the rest of the forecast period. By day 5, a
mid-level trough will likely be supporting Jose with some baroclinic
energy to maintain the cyclone's intensity in an environment of
higher shear and slightly cooler waters. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/03, as Jose
now appears to be moving slowly westward. A building subtropical
ridge to the east of Jose will become the dominant steering
mechanism through much of the forecast period, with some influence
from the above-mentioned upper-level trough by day 5. This pattern
should cause Jose to gradually turn poleward during the next 72
hours, with a northward to north-northeastward motion expected by
days 4-5. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the
previous one at 48 and 72 hours, but is otherwise similar and lies
roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough
surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 25.2N  66.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 25.2N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 25.9N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 27.0N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 28.0N  70.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 30.5N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 33.7N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 36.6N  68.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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