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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

Jose is showing signs of becoming better organized.  The low-level
center is embedded well within a growing central dense overcast
(CDO).  Despite the improved appearance of Jose, the Dvorak
classifications are largely unchanged since 6 hours ago, so the
intensity has been held at 60 kt.  There has been no change in any
of the intensity guidance, so I see no reason to substantially
change the intensity forecast.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
very close to the multi-model consensus, and continues to show Jose
regaining hurricane status later today.  Beginning around 72 h, an
increase in shear should bring an end to intensification, and will
probably cause Jose to weaken.  Once again, some of the global
models suggest that Jose will remain a tropical cyclone through day
5, but that extratropical transition could begin around that time.
If that happens, baroclinic forcing could help maintain the
intensity of Jose, even as the shear increases.

Because the low-level circulation center of Jose is hidden beneath
the CDO, the initial position and heading are fairly uncertain.  My
best estimate of the current motion is 290/7 kt.  Despite the
initial motion uncertainty, the global models are coming into better
agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with
the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S.
That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west
track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi
in that direction.  My new forecast is near the HFIP corrected
consensus, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 25.9N  68.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 26.4N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 27.4N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 28.3N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 29.4N  72.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 32.2N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 35.0N  72.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 38.0N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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