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Hurricane Katia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Katia this
evening and found flight level winds of 80 kt and SFMR values
around 75 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is
nudged upward to 75 kt.  Satellite images also show that Katia is
getting better organized, with a ragged eye becoming apparent
during the last hour or so.  Additional strengthening is possible,
and Katia could be near major hurricane strength before it makes
landfall by Saturday morning.  After landfall, rapid weakening
is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged
terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains shortly after 48 hours.

Katia has now begun the expected slow west-southwest motion.  A
continued slow west-southwestward motion is expected until the
system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one and near the consensus models.

In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains
associated with Katia is forecast to affect eastern Mexico.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 21.5N  95.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 21.3N  95.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 20.8N  96.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 19.9N  97.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/0000Z 19.3N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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