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Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Thunderstorms continue to increase near and on the northeastern
side of Rina.  However, the center remains partially exposed due to
southwesterly shear.  Although the overall convective pattern is
more organized than a few hours ago, satellite estimates continue
to support a conservative initial wind speed of 35 kt for this
advisory.

The environment around Rina is expected to be only slightly
supportive of intensification for the next day or so with moderate
shear and cool upper-level temperatures offsetting marginal SSTs.
In about 48 hours, Rina should interact with a frontal boundary and
become post-tropical.  Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on
this scenario and little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, which is near or slightly above the consensus.

Rina is moving northward at about 13 kt. The storm is forecast to
accelerate today and turn northeastward tomorrow as it becomes more
embedded within the mid-latitude flow.  Rina should move rather
rapidly to the northeast later this week over the far northern
Atlantic ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. Only
small changes were made to the track forecast, and the new NHC
prediction is slightly faster than the last one at long range.  The
storm should dissipate by day 4 well west of Ireland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 32.4N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 34.7N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 37.8N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 41.0N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 45.5N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1200Z 56.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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