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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The areal coverage of cold cloud tops continues to decrease, and
microwave images indicate that all the remaining deep convection is
restricted to the northwestern quadrant.  Based on a blend of the
latest subjective and objective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers,
Eugene is estimated to have maximum winds of 55 kt.  With sea
surface temperatures decreasing below 22 deg C ahead of Eugene, the
cyclone's winds and convection will continue to wane, and it will
likely degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours.  Based on the
global models, the remnant low should dissipate by day 5.

Eugene remains on a steady northwestward heading of 325/8 kt.
Little change in this trajectory is expected during the next
several days as Eugene moves toward a break in the subtropical
ridge located off the northern Baja California coast.  Some
reduction in forward speed is likely by day 3 and 4 when the
remnant low is steered by weaker low-level winds.  The updated NHC
track forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and
is not too different from the previous forecast.

Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern
California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous
rip current conditions.  Please refer to statements issued by your
local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 20.6N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 21.6N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 22.8N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 24.0N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z 25.2N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 27.1N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 28.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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