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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Deep convection associated with Eugene is diminishing in depth and
areal coverage.  Consequently, subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB
and TAFB as well as objective ADT values from CIMSS continue to
drop.  The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, though this is with a
substantial amount of uncertainty.

A 0949Z AMSR2 microwave image helped to locate the center of Eugene
this morning. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 9
kt.  Eugene is expected to continue moving in the same direction
and speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the
southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge.  The
official track forecast is nearly unchanged and continues to be
based upon the multi-model consensus technique TVCN.

Eugene has been weakening due to ingestion of cool and dry air as
it moves into the stratocumulus-infested waters west of Baja
California.  This will continue due to the northwestward track over
even cooler SSTs during the next two days.  It is expected that
Eugene will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in
24-36 hr and dissipate completely in about 5 days.  The official
intensity forecast is slightly lower than that previously and is
based upon the multi-model consensus technique IVCN.

Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern
California during the next couple days, causing high surf and
dangerous rip current conditions.  Please refer to statements issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 21.3N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 22.3N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 23.4N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 24.6N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1200Z 25.7N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1200Z 27.6N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z 28.8N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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