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Tropical Depression Eugene Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Eugene is not quite ready to quit.  Deep convection continues in the
northeastern quadrant of the system, though this is not very deep
nor extensive.  Given the spin-down likely occuring since the
overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass as well as the Dvorak
classifications from SAB and TAFB, the intensity is assessed at 30
kt, downgrading Eugene to a tropical depression.  The system should
lose deep convection shortly as it moves over 21C SSTs and become a
remnant low by tonight.  By day 3 or 4, Eugene's circulation is
likely to open up into a trough.  The intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous advisory.

The tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt,
steered around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical
ridge over northwestern Mexico.  This motion should continue for the
next couple of days, then slow by day 3 before dissipation.  The
track forecast is slightly east of the previous advisory at days 2
and 3 and is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus.

Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of
northern Baja California peninsula and southern California during
the next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current
conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather
office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 23.6N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 24.4N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/1200Z 25.5N 123.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0000Z 26.4N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z 27.3N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1200Z 28.5N 127.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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