ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A ragged eye has become intermittently discernible on conventional infrared imagery, and this feature is surrounded by very cold convective tops. The outflow continues to be well established in the southern and eastern semicircle only. T-numbers have continued to gradually increase to T4.5 and T5.0 on the Dvorak scale, and the blend of these numbers support an initial intensity of 85 kt. Fernanda is moving across the deep tropics toward an environment of low shear and warm ocean, and these conditions are very favorable for additional intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. Given such favorable environment, the NHC forecast calls for additional strengthening, and the forecast is a little more aggressive than indicated in the consensus. It is worth noting that the latest SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RI) is not as high as earlier. Beyond 3 days, Fernanda will likely encounters cooler waters, and a gradual weakening is expected to begin. Fernanda is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10kt. The hurricane is trapped south of a strong and persistent subtropical ridge, and this pattern should continue to steer the cyclone westward during the next 2 to 3 days. By then, Fernanda could begin to move west-northwestward toward a weakening of the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. Track guidance continues to be tightly clustered, and this increases the confidence in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 11.0N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 10.8N 119.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 11.0N 121.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 11.4N 123.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 12.0N 125.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 13.5N 130.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 16.0N 137.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN