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Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
depression is gradually getting better organized, with upper-level
outflow improving in all quadrants. However, the low-level and
mid-level circulations do not appear to be vertically aligned quite
yet, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the west of the
low-level center. As a result, the intensity has been maintained at
30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is 270/13 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the cyclone is expected to steer the system generally
westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so,
resulting in the center passing well to the south and southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. On days 4 and 5, a motion
toward the northwest is expected as the cyclone begins to move into
a weakness in the ridge. The new track guidance remains tightly
clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant
changes were required.

The cyclone is forecast to remain in light vertical shear conditions
throughout the 5-day period. That favorable upper-level flow regime
will combine with SSTs near 29 deg C and a moist mid-level
environment to allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen into a
hurricane by Tuesday and be near major hurricane strength by day 4.
The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 10.8N  22.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 11.0N  24.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 11.5N  26.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 12.1N  29.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 12.8N  32.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 14.0N  37.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 16.3N  42.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 19.6N  45.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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