ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 500 PM HST Wed Jul 03 2019 Cloud tops around the still well-defined eye of Barbara have warmed a little more this afternoon/evening, suggesting that the hurricane continues to weaken. Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity of Barbara has been lowered to 115 kt, in the middle of the various fixes. Virtually no change has been made to the intensity forecast. Barbara will be moving over cooler SSTs for the next several days, and the hurricane should cross the 26 degree C isotherm in about 24 hours. The vertical wind shear is also forecast to increase sharply in about 36 to 48 hours, which should hasten the weakening of the tropical cyclone. These factors, along with a drier surrounding environment, will likely cause Barbara to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical in about 3 days, possibly just after reaching the central Pacific basin. The intensity guidance is in extremely good agreement on this general scenario, with the only uncertainty being the exact rate at which Barbara will weaken, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance. Barbara continues to move steadily west-northwestward or 300/10 kt. The new NHC forecast is practically on top of the previous one, and there have been no changes of significance in the track forecast guidance. The hurricane is currently moving along the southwestern edge of a mid-level subtropical ridge that extends from Mexico over much of the eastern North Pacific, and this should continue for another day or two. As it weakens, Barbara will be increasingly steered by low-level easterly trade wind flow, and this should causes the cyclone to turn toward the west by the weekend. The NHC forecast continues to lie near the middle of the guidance envelope and very near TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 128.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.2N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 19.0N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 19.1N 140.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 18.8N 146.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN