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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 PM HST Thu Jul 04 2019

Barbara still appears to be a hurricane on the downswing. The
cyclone had a surprising last gasp earlier this afternoon with a
ring of cold cloud-tops surrounding the well-defined eye in infrared
imagery, and satellite intensity estimates actually increased
slightly since the last advisory. However, several microwave passes
during the past 6 hours revealed that all of the active deep
convection is limited to the northern semicircle of the hurricane,
likely due to the continued effects of southwesterly shear.
Furthermore, the eye of the hurricane has become poorly defined
since around 0000 UTC. Although the intensity of Barbara is 85 kt
for this advisory, rapid weakening should resume imminently due to
the aforementioned shear, cold waters, and a relatively dry
surrounding environment. No changes of significance were made to the
NHC intensity forecast, which remains close to the intensity
consensus, IVCN, and Barbara is still forecast to become a remnant
low on Saturday.

No changes of note were made to the track forecast either. Barbara's
estimated motion is 310/10 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest
is anticipated on Friday. The cyclone should then turn westward as
it weakens, steered by low-level easterlies, and will likely remain
on that general heading until it dissipates east of the Hawaiian
Islands early next week. The track guidance is in good agreement and
the NHC forecast closely follows the simple track consensus TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 17.3N 131.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 18.1N 133.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 19.1N 138.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 19.2N 141.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  08/0000Z 18.7N 147.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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