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Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

The GOES-17 water vapor presentation, along with the upper-level
satellite-derived winds, reveals that an upper anticyclone just to
the north of Flossie is still producing modest vertical wind shear.
This inhibiting wind pattern is also confirmed by a recent METOP-B
AMSU pass that depicted a lack of deep convection in the northern
portion of the cyclone.  The subjective and objective intensity
estimates, along with an earlier 1517 UTC SATCON analysis, yield
an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

Flossie is forecast to gradually intensify into a category 2
hurricane in 3 days, then commence a slow weakening trend as the
cyclone moves into a more stable and drier air mass, along with
increasing wind shear.  The official intensity forecast is based on
a blend of the NOAA HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble, and is
similar to the previous package.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/16 kt.  A
strong, deep-layer ridge anchored to the north of Flossie should
influence a generally westward to west-northwestward motion during
the next 5 days.  The track guidance remains in very good agreement
and the official NHC track forecast is again hedged toward the
NOAA HCCA and the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 12.5N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 12.4N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 12.6N 120.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 13.2N 123.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 13.8N 125.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 15.5N 131.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 17.0N 136.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 18.3N 142.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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