ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 500 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019 Satellite images indicate that deep convection continues to pulse near the center of Flossie, with cloud-top temperatures to -92C observed during the past several hours. Microwave data show the center is just south of those overshooting tops, and about half a ragged eyewall is present. The initial wind speed is raised to 70 kt, which is a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB/SAB. The cyclone continues to have difficulty closing off a complete eyewall, likely due to northwesterly shear and some dry air aloft as indicated by outflow boundaries noted in the northern semicircle. The environment is forecast to become less conducive late on Wednesday, possibly due to some of the outflow from Hurricane Erick impacting Flossie, and the predicted NHC intensity briefly levels off on Thursday. Thereafter, the upper-level winds do become lighter, but the center is still fairly close to a high-shear region, so only slight intensification is shown. Model guidance has generally come down quite a bit since the last cycle, which is consistent with the iffy environment, so the NHC forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one in the first 48 hours. After 3 days, the NHC forecast indicates slow weakening after considering marginal water temperatures and light/moderate westerly shear, although it should be mentioned the models are in poor agreement on the long-range intensity. A 0107 UTC SSMI/S pass nicely shows the center of Flossie, which helps to give a more confident initial motion of 285/12. A mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to be the primary steering during the next several days, yielding a general west-northwest motion. A turn to the west is probable at long-range since the ridge builds westward ahead of the cyclone. The models remain in fairly good agreement, so the latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, shaded a bit toward the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 12.8N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.7N 138.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 17.5N 143.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 18.0N 148.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN