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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance
that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several
days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early
morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with
peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the
disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has
most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories
are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being
steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from
northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model
guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this
ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression.
This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is
then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder
of the forecast period.

The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30
C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly
shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady
strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal
hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the
model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on
the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect
for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will
move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while
undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken
and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical
cyclone by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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