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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

The satellite appearance of Ivo has changed little today, with
northeasterly shear confining the deep convection to the
southwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation. Although
recent ASCAT data suggests that the peak winds may have decreased,
the initial intensity is conservatively maintained at 55 kt, based
on the earlier wind report from Clarion Island.

Ivo's initial motion is 335/09 kt. This general motion is expected
to continue for at least the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow system in a
couple of days, the forward motion should decrease and a turn to the
northeast should occur, as the circulation becomes steered by the
low level flow. The official forecast track is very close to the
previous one and is near the various consensus model solutions.

Although guidance suggests the wind shear will decrease over Ivo
starting in about 12 hours, the cyclone is beginning to move over
progressively cooler waters. This should cause the cyclone to
gradually weaken over the next couple of days. By Sunday afternoon,
Ivo will be over SSTs of about 22 C and in a more stable airmass.
This should cause the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection
and degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The latest
forecast is an update of the previous one and in agreement with the
corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 19.7N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

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