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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Deep convection associated with Ivo has quickly waned this evening.
A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the storm this
afternoon found SFMR winds that suggested that the cyclone may have
been slightly stronger than previously estimated.  However, with the
degradation in organization since that time, the initial wind
speed is set to 35 kt for this advisory. Ivo has moved north of
the 26C isotherm and is heading toward even colder waters and a
more stable environment.  Thus weakening should occur overnight,
and Ivo is forecast to become a tropical depression within 12
hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night.

The initial motion is 335/8 kt. Ivo continues moving north-
northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered
over northern Mexico.  The cyclone should decelerate and turn
northward on Sunday as it weakens and comes under the influence of
the low-level steering flow.

The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo
during the last few days has generated swells that are now
reaching portions of the coasts of the Baja California peninsula
and southern California.  These swells are likely to cause rip
currents.  See products from your local weather office for
additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 23.4N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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