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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Mario has been a swirl of low clouds devoid of convection since the
last advisory.  The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based
mainly on subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and passive microwave winds from the WindSat suggests the
possibility this is a bit generous.

While Mario remains in an area of strong easterly vertical shear,
it is still over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively
moist air mass.  Thus, the lack of convection is a little
surprising.  The intensity forecast will show little change in
strength during the next 12 h in anticipation of a convective burst
developing near the center during the diurnal maximum.  After that
time, dry air entrainment and movement over cooler waters should
inhibit the development of convection, and the cyclone is forecast
to decay into a remnant low by 36 h, if not sooner.  The new
intensity forecast is again mainly an update of the previous
forecast.

Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 350/6
kt.  The track guidance is in good agreement on a north-
northwestward to northwestward motion through about 48 h, followed
by a more northward motion near the 72 h point.  Once again, little
change was made to the forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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