ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 ...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 110.1W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Narda is forecast to continue moving along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The wind circulation of Narda will likely dissipate later today, however moisture associated with Narda's remnants will continue to spread northward over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days. This moisture could cause heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty conditions are possible along the coast this morning. These winds should diminish through the day. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through today: Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding today. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding over northwest Mexico. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN