ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Satellite imagery this morning shows that the disturbance continues
to lack a well-defined center, and there is evidence of multiple
low-level cloud swirls near the mean center.  One swirl came
onshore a few hours ago just southwest of Salina Cruz, Mexico,
accompanied by wind gusts to tropical-storm force.  Another swirl is
currently near or just offshore of Puerto Angel close to a strong
cluster of convection.  The mean position between these swirls used
in this advisory is inland over the Mexican state of Oaxaca.  The
initial intensity remains 30 kt based partly on surface observations
and partly from continuity with the previous advisory.

The chances that the system will become a tropical cyclone are
diminishing.  However, advisories will continue and the tropical
storm watch will remain in effect until it becomes clear that the
center will not try to re-form offshore.  If this does not happen,
the disturbance should dissipate over the mountains of central
Mexico between 12-24 h.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12.  A general
northwestward motion should continue until the system dissipates.

The primary threat from this disturbance remains heavy rainfall and
the potential for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Mexico
during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 16.2N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0000Z 17.3N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN