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Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Raymond's cloud pattern has continued to lose organization since
the last advisory, with the remaining convection now occurring in a
ragged band to the east of the center.  The initial intensity has
been reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/5.  A developing
mid-latitude deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja
California peninsula is becoming the main steering influence for
Raymond, and this feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn
northward and accelerate during the next 12-24 h.  After that,
Raymond or its remnants should turn north-northwestward to
northwestward as it becomes absorbed into the mid-latitude system.

Southwesterly vertical shear is increasing over the tropical
cyclone, and it should increase further during the next couple of
days.  Thus, continued weakening is forecast, and Raymond is now
expected to become a depression in 18-24 h, a remnant low by 36 h,
and dissipate completely after 48 h.  If organized convection does
not return to the cyclone, all of these events could occur earlier
than currently forecast.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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