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Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center 
rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is
displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water
vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation.
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay
this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb,
and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb
peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50
kt for this advisory.
 
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one.
Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves
inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after
that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the
models show the vortex dissipating by that time.
 
The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally
northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was
made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one
and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to
affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England may
result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor
drainage. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward 
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and 
tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts 
of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long 
Island.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 38.4N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 39.9N  74.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1200Z 43.2N  73.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z 47.1N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/1200Z 50.7N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brennan
 
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