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Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020
 
There has not been much change with Kyle during the past several
hours.  The tropical storm continues to feel the influence of
strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center
exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection.  Despite 
the system's poor appearance, a ship recently reported winds around 
40 kt about 70 n mi southeast of the center.  Based on that data 
and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is 
nudged up to 40 kt.
 
The tropical storm is moving fairly quickly toward the
east-northeast away from the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 065/14 kt.  A slightly faster
east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next
few days as the storm becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies.  The track models are in relatively good agreement, and
this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
The ongoing westerly shear is only expected to get stronger with
time, therefore, significant intensification is not expected.
However, the global models suggest that a little strengthening is
likely during the next day or two while Kyle moves along the
northern wall of the Gulf Stream current and interacts with an
upper-level trough. Kyle is forecast to transition to an
extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours when it is expected to be
north of the Gulf Stream over cool waters and in a drier
environment.  The extratropical system should slowly decay until it
is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 38.3N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 39.3N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 40.7N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 42.0N  58.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 43.1N  54.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  17/1200Z 43.6N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/0000Z 43.5N  43.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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