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Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020
 
Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of 
convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed 
off well to the southeast of the cyclone's exposed low-level center. 
The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination 
of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as 
as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds 
compared to earlier today. 
 
These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a 
tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear 
is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should 
cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday 
night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to 
have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low.  An 
approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the 
remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the 
various intensity aids.   

Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering 
pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone 
will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern 
periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period, 
once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is 
expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC 
track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in 
the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 35.8N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 36.4N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 37.0N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 37.2N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 37.0N  60.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1200Z 36.9N  58.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 37.4N  56.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 40.0N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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