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Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Satellite images show that Paulette continues to become better 
organized, with a more symmetric presentation and very deep 
convection near or just north of the center. The initial wind speed 
is increased to 40 kt, a little higher than recent subjective Dvorak 
estimates, but close to the objective estimates and the UW-CIMSS 
satellite consensus.  Further strengthening is expected during the 
next day or so while the storm remains in a warm SST and 
low-to-moderate shear environment.  By midweek, some weakening is 
forecast due to an increase in shear from an enhanced mid-oceanic 
upper-level trough.  There's a fair amount of uncertainty on how 
quickly the tropical cyclone moves across the trough axis, which 
would then allow Paulette to find an area of lighter shear, plus 
very warm water, by the end of the forecast period.  The intensity 
forecast is slightly higher in the short-term, and lower in the 
day-4 period just before the environment is forecast to improve.
 
Paulette appears to be moving slowly north-northwestward this 
evening.  A mid-level ridge is likely to build over the western and 
central North Atlantic in a day or two, and this pattern should 
cause Paulette to move faster toward the northwest tomorrow, and  
west-northwestward or westward through late week.  A turn back 
toward the west-northwest or northwest is possible over the weekend 
as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the ridge.  This is 
not a particularly certain forecast because the track models aren't 
in good agreement, perhaps linked to the strength of Paulette, and 
there is significant spread in the various ensemble guidance.  With 
no clear trends to rely on, and since the new model consensus came 
in very close to the previous NHC forecast, the new NHC track 
prediction is basically unchanged from the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 17.8N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 18.4N  42.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 19.2N  44.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 19.9N  45.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 20.5N  47.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 20.9N  49.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 21.3N  51.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 22.5N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 25.0N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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