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Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette continues to experience the effects of 35-40 kt of 
southwesterly vertical shear, which has caused the center to 
occasionally become exposed to the south and southwest of the 
primary convective bursts.  Since the various satellite intensity 
estimates are unchanged since the last scatterometer overpass, the 
initial intensity is held at 55 kt.  However, this could be a 
little generous.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/9 kt.  There is 
little change to either the forecast track philosophy or the 
forecast track from the last advisory.  The track guidance models 
remain in good agreement between a generally northwest to 
west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone
is steered by the subtropical ridge to its north and northeast. 
Around day 4, the cyclone is expected to recurve into the 
westerlies through a break in the ridge, with this turn to the 
northeast expected at about the time of closest approach to 
Bermuda.  The new forecast track lies close to the various 
consensus models.  It should be noted that there is still 
sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon
to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early
next week.

The global models are in reasonable agreement that the shear over 
Paulette should subside, although it may be another 24 h before it 
subsides enough that significant strengthening can occur.  After 
that, conditions should be favorable for strengthening until the 
system again encounters strong upper-level winds near 120 h after 
recurvature. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that 
Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane during this time and reach a 
peak intensity in about 96 h, and the new intensity forecast has 
only minor changes from the previous forecast.  The new forecast is 
close to, but a little weaker than the various intensity consensus 
models.

 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and
Tuesday.  While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity
near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.
 
2.  Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the southeastern United States into the weekend.  These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 23.1N  51.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 23.9N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 25.3N  54.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 26.8N  56.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 28.2N  58.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/1800Z 29.5N  61.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 30.7N  63.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 33.5N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 36.0N  59.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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