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Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the post-tropical remnants of
Paulette that moved southward to the southwest of the Azores over
the past few days has become better organized over the past 6-12
hours.  An ASCAT over pass from a few hours ago indicate that
increase in convective organization has result in strengthening and
the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone once again.
The ASCAT revealed peak winds of just over 45 kt, and given that
instruments typical undersampling, the initial intensity is set at
50 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated a small radius of
maximum winds of about 30 n mi, therefore the system is being
classified as a tropical cyclone rather than subtropical.
 
Paulette is moving east-northeastward or 075/14 kt. The tropical
storm should continue moving east-northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough dropping southeastward over the northeastern
Atlantic, and the global models are in reasonably good agreement
through 24-36 hours. After that time, there is significant
bifurcation in the track guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON all
taking a stronger Paulette faster east-northeastward over the
eastern Atlantic, while the UKMET and ECMWF show a weaker cyclone
slowing down and turning west-southwestward in the low-level
steering flow late in the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast
shows Paulette slowing down and turning southward, and then
southwestward between 48-96 h, but it's not nearly as far west as 
the UKMET and ECMWF models. Given the large spread in the track
guidance at that time period, the NHC forecast is near the HFIP
corrected consensus.
 
Paulette is already over marginal SSTs and cooler waters
lie ahead along the forecast track.  This, along with moderate
vertical wind shear should result in gradual weakening beginning on
Tuesday.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for Paulette to weaken
to a tropical depression in 48-60 h, and become a remnant low
shortly thereafter.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 33.9N  25.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 34.4N  22.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 34.7N  20.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 35.1N  18.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 35.3N  16.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 34.7N  16.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 34.0N  16.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z 33.1N  18.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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