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Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020
 
The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo 
Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the 
western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling 
in east of the center.  The satellite intensity estimates currently 
range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved 
satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised 
to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene.  Rene is the 17th 
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the 
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The 
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.
 
Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue 
moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at 
least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to 
the north of the storm.  Toward the end of the forecast period, a 
turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in 
the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges, 
especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted 
in that direction at days 3 through 5.
 
Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as 
the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while 
moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear 
and high amounts of moisture.  An increase in southwesterly shear 
late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend 
and induce some weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is again an 
update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and 
IVCN consensus models.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday.  A 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.
 
2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo 
Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 16.1N  22.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 16.3N  24.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.7N  26.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 17.2N  29.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.8N  32.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 18.6N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 19.6N  37.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 22.1N  41.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 26.0N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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