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Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020
 
Rene lost essentially all of its deep convection over the past 
several hours, however recently some new thunderstorms have 
developed over the western part of the circulation.  The cause of 
the system's decline is not clear.  One negative environmental 
factor could be dry air, since the SHIPS output based on the GFS 
model shows mid-level relative humidities of 50-55 percent.  Using a 
blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along 
with objective ADT values from UW-CIMSS gives a rather uncertain 
advisory intensity of 35 kt.  Since the cyclone should remain over 
waters of 26.5 deg C or warmer and the shear is not expected to 
increase much during the next day or two, some re-intensification is 
expected.  Based on the current state of Rene, the official 
intensity forecast is revised downward to show less strengthening 
through 48 hr compared to the previous predictions.  By the latter 
part of the forecast period, increasing northwesterly shear should 
result in weakening.  The NHC forecast is above most of the 
intensity guidance.  

The latest center fixes give a slightly faster west-northwestward 
motion of 290/11 kt. Rene should continue to move around the 
western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone for the next couple of 
days.  Then, a high pressure area building to the north and 
northwest of the cyclone should induce a slowing of the forward 
speed and a turn toward the left.  The official track forecast is 
similar to the previous one and closely aligned with the NOAA 
corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 20.3N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 21.2N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 22.5N  43.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 24.3N  45.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 25.9N  46.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 27.0N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 27.3N  46.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 26.8N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 26.8N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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