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Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Rene is producing a round of disorganized convection at this time, 
with the convection now displaced to the east of the center by 
increasing west-northwesterly vertical shear.  The initial 
intensity remains 25 kt based on a combination of satellite 
intensity estimates and continuity from the previous advisory.  The 
strong shear and a dry environment should lead to Rene degenerating 
to a remnant low pressure area between 24-36 h, with the global 
models in good agreement that the remnant low should weaken to a 
trough by 72 h.  The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the 
previous forecast.

The initial motion is 325/12.  A blocking ridge of high pressure is 
forecast to build to the northwest or Rene during the next day or 
two, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward.  
After that time, a west-southwestward motion is expected as Rene or 
its remnants are steered by a combination of the ridge and the 
circulation of Tropical Depression 20 to the southeast.  There is 
little change to either the track guidance or the forecast track 
from the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 26.2N  47.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 27.2N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 27.7N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 27.6N  49.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0600Z 27.2N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/1800Z 26.7N  51.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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