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Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
 
Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern 
quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and 
so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial 
intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and 
satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS 
SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named 
storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical 
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving 
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the 
ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the 
strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the 
western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is 
general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new 
official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down 
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model
tracks.
 
Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean 
temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The 
only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions  
of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core 
convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged 
and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. 
Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that 
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make 
that forecast at this time.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 13.4N  40.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 13.8N  42.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 14.3N  44.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 15.0N  46.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.9N  48.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 16.9N  49.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 18.3N  50.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 21.0N  53.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 23.9N  55.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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