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Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020
 
A METOP A/B ASCAT scatterometer pass over the cyclone showed a large 
swath of winds in the northeast quadrant on the order of 35 to 39 
kt.  Deep convection in that region of the cyclone continues to 
increase as well as near the center of circulation.  Accordingly, 
the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt, making this the twentieth 
named storm of the season.  This should be a short-lived tropical 
cyclone, however, as increasing southwesterly shear is expected to 
quickly weaken Vicky to a depression in a couple days, and the 
system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low Thursday.  This 
scenario is based on a combination of the global models and the 
ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models.
 
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/05 kt. The cyclone 
is forecast to move northwestward with some increase in forward 
speed during the next 24 hours within the low to mid-level steering 
flow produced by the eastern end of the African monsoon trough.  By 
Tuesday night, Vicky should turn west-northwestward to westward 
along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the 
eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the 
various consensus aids and is just to the north of the previous 
advisory beyond 36 hours.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 18.7N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 19.6N  29.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 20.6N  30.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 21.6N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 22.2N  34.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 22.7N  36.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 23.0N  39.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 23.1N  42.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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