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Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
 
Vicky remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical 
storm.  The low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of 
the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical 
wind shear.  The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the 
earlier ASCAT data, which is well above the Dvorak estimates.  
Vicky is expected to remain in hostile wind shear conditions while 
traversing 26 C waters, so it seems likely that weakening should 
occur.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the model 
guidance and shows gradual weakening during the next few days.  
Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but 
it is always tricky to figure out when these systems will lose all 
of its convection since it is forecast to stay over relatively warm 
waters.  
 
The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the
left of the previous track at 285/9.  Vicky should gradually turn 
westward later today and west-southwestward in a couple of days 
when it becomes a shallow cyclone and moves in the low-level flow.  
The new track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to 
be closer to the latest consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 21.6N  33.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 21.9N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 22.0N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 22.0N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 21.7N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1800Z 21.4N  42.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 20.8N  44.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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