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Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
 
There's been little change in Vicky's cloud pattern this afternoon. 
What's left of the deep convection associated with Vicky is 
displaced well to the east of the center.  Cirrus clouds produced by 
the outflow of Hurricane Teddy, located nearly 1000 miles to the 
west-southwest of Vicky, are obscuring the sheared surface 
circulation.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this 
advisory in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and due to 
the fact that the cloud pattern has remained unchanged.
 
The UW-CIMSS SAT-Wind/shear products and water vapor imagery 
reveal an interesting upper wind pattern consisting of an upper low 
just to the west of Vicky and a narrow upper-tropospheric ridge to 
the south of the cyclone.  These upper-level features are 
temporarily creating a very diffluent pattern which appears to be 
offsetting the blistering westerly shear a bit.  In any event, 
Vicky is still forecast to gradually lose strength and degenerate to 
a remnant low on Friday, which is in best agreement with the global 
models and the statistical-dynamical intensity aids.

The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky
should continue moving westward for the next day or two before
turning west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow.  The 
new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to 
the HCCA and TCVA multi-model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 21.5N  35.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 21.6N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 21.3N  38.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 20.6N  40.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 19.8N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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