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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become significantly better organized 
overnight.  The low-level center is located near the western edge of 
the convection, but the system has enough organization to be 
declared a tropical cyclone.  Therefore, advisories are being 
initiated at this time.  The system appears to be near 
tropical-storm strength, but since earlier classifications were just 
below that intensity the system is being started as a 30-kt tropical 
depression.  The system appears more tropical than subtropical 
since it is no longer co-located with an upper-level low and it 
appears to have a fairly small radius of maximum winds. Therefore, 
it has been designated a tropical cyclone.  Scatterometer data 
later this morning should provide a better assessment of the 
system's intensity.  The depression is located over SSTs over 27-28 
degrees Celsius and within an area of moderate westerly shear.  
These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the 
next day or so.  After that time, the shear is expected to decrease 
and continued strengthen is anticipated. The NHC intensity 
forecasts calls for the system to become a hurricane within 72 
hours, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and ICON intensity 
consensus models.
 
The depression is located in an area of weak steering currents near
the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward
from the northeastern Atlantic.  As a result, little net motion is
expected through tonight.  A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast 
to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the 
system by midweek.  As the ridge slides eastward later this week, 
the cyclone should move west-northwestward to northwestward at a 
faster rate of speed.  This motion will bring the system close to 
Bermuda by late week and the interests on that island should 
closely monitor the progress of the cyclone.  The dynamical models 
are in relatively good agreement on the overall scenario and the 
NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1200Z 25.8N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 25.8N  55.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 26.0N  55.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 26.9N  55.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 28.0N  57.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 28.6N  59.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 29.5N  60.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 31.7N  62.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 33.5N  63.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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