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Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020
 
Although the center of the system has become exposed over the past 
few hours, it is very well defined.  In addition, the convective  
banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation 
has continued to improve.  Based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5 
from TAFB, the system is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. ASCAT-A 
has missed the circulation, but ASCAT-B caught the far eastern edge 
of the wind field and indicates winds of 30-35 kt in that area.  The 
tropical storm is located within an environment of moderate 
southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and over warm waters.  
These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the 
next day or so. By 48 hours, decreasing vertical wind shear could 
allow for more significant intensification, and there is increasing 
spread in the intensity guidance by that time.  The statistical 
guidance is at the upper-end of the envelope while the regional 
hurricane models are lower.  The NHC forecast is a bit on the 
conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity 
consensus aids.  Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward 
adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent 
advisories. 
 
Epsilon is meandering over the central Atlantic as it is located 
within an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to 
upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern 
Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the 
western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek, 
and this ridge should slide eastward later in the week.  These 
changes in the synoptic pattern should cause Epsilon to begin moving 
west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed by 
midweek. The models are again in fairly good agreement and the NHC 
track is near the center of the guidance envelope.  

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when 
it approaches Bermuda late this week.  While it is too soon to 
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near 
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, 
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely 
monitor the progress of Epsilon. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 25.6N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 25.8N  55.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 26.4N  55.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 27.6N  56.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 28.3N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 29.1N  59.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 30.2N  60.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 32.3N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 34.5N  63.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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