ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020
 
Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify 
this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very 
impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of 
eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air 
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier 
today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level 
winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106 
kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support 
to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since 
the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to 
100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season.

Epsilon's estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is 
expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is 
steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east. 
Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest 
approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the 
ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn 
northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to 
accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. 
There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models, 
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in 
the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus.

As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will 
become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The 
hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight, 
and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h. 
With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be 
completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon's development trends and 
well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to 
the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period. 
Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with 
the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC 
intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could 
begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is 
forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the 
northeastern Atlantic by day 5.
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
 
2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands.  These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 29.6N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 30.5N  60.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 31.8N  61.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 33.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 34.4N  62.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 36.2N  61.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 38.3N  59.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 44.5N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 54.0N  28.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
 
NNNN