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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost 
definition over the past several hours.  While satellite intensity 
estimates haven't changed much yet, they were generally higher than 
the earlier reconnaissance data.  The initial wind speed is set to 
75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing 
more weight on the aircraft data.

Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at 
roughly 8 kt.  The hurricane should turn northward overnight and 
continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a 
break in the central Atlantic ridge.  Epsilon is likely to move 
considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get 
caught in the mid-latitude flow.  The only significant adjustment 
to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days.  
The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the 
weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than 
the regional hurricane guidance.  After 72 hours, the cyclone is 
forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the 
far north Atlantic.

The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of 
days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger 
secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data.  Otherwise, a 
trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could 
lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon's strength tomorrow or 
Saturday.  Either way, the global models make this hurricane's 
wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds), 
and that's reflected in the latest wind radii forecast.  The new 
NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one, 
adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.
 
2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 31.9N  61.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 33.0N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 34.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 36.8N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 39.0N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 42.2N  53.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 46.5N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin
 
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