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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
 
Epsilon's convective pattern has continued to devolve into more of a 
large comma-shaped pattern rather than the classical circular 
structure of a mature tropical cyclone. There is a ragged remnant 
eye, however, which has provided a good continuity feature to 
track. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on a 
Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of T4.0/65 kt from 
TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/10 kt. 
Epsilon is now located north of the mid-oceanic subtropical ridge 
axis, so acceleration into the faster mid-latitude westerlies is 
expected to begin by this evening, if not sooner, and continue 
through the weekend. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent 
agreement on this developing track scenario. The new NHC official 
track forecast is almost identical to the previous advisory track, 
and lies down the middle of the tightly packed simple- and 
corrected-consensus track model envelope.

Epsilon will be moving off of a relatively warm Gulfstream eddy 
(26.5 deg C sea-surface temperature/SST) in the next 6 h or so, 
which should result in continued slow weakening through the weekend. 
By 36 h, SSTs are expected to drop sharply to less than 20 deg C, 
causing the complete erosion of any remaining inner-core convection 
and resultant transition to a large and powerful extratropical low. 
The post-tropical cyclone will continue to produce a large area of 
gale- and storm-force winds right up until the time that it merges 
with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by 
late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely 
produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic 
through the middle of next week.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 36.9N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 38.8N  59.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 41.5N  55.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 45.0N  47.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/0600Z 49.1N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  26/1800Z 53.3N  25.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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