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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020
 
Epsilon continues its extratropical transition, as the cloud tops
near the center of circulation are warming while the cloud pattern
continues to expand over the northern portion of the circulation.
The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory 
based on early morning ASCAT data.  Partial data from a more recent 
scatterometer pass also suggested this intensity. 
 
The cyclone is now moving over waters of only 17 degrees C and the
waters ahead of the system are even cooler than that.  Epsilon
is also interacting with a baroclinic zone as evidenced by a large
area of cool and stable air stratocumulus wrapping around the
southwestern portion of the circulation.  These factors should cause
what remains of the inner-core convection to weaken over the next
several hours, and the system should complete its extratropical
transition by tonight.  The post-tropical cyclone will remain
large and powerful for the next day or so until it is absorbed by
another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about
36-48 h.
 
Epsilon is moving quickly east-northeastward at around 30 kt. The
cyclone is expected to accelerate even more today, with a fast
east-northeastward or northeastward motion expected until the
system is absorbed by the other low. The latest NHC forecast track
is little changed from the previous one and lies in the middle of
the tightly clustered consensus guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 44.3N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 47.0N  41.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 51.5N  31.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z 56.4N  23.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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