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Hurricane Iota Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

Iota has a powerful appearance on the latest satellite imagery, with 
a well-defined eye and solid eyewall. The last aircraft mission 
reported winds similar to the previous crew, with maximum 700-mb 
flight-level winds of about 145 kt, with SFMR values of 130-135 kt, 
and a central pressure of about 919 mb. This data support an initial 
wind speed of about 140 kt, although this could be a little 
generous.  The next aircraft will be in the hurricane early this 
evening for a final reconnaissance assessment.  Little change in 
intensity is expected before landfall this evening, and rapid 
weakening is anticipated over central America.  Notably, strong 
winds are expected near the core and in coastal areas of Honduras 
for about a day after landfall, along with torrential rainfall.
 
The hurricane is moving westward a little slower, about 8 kt. The 
forecast has been gradually adjusting southward with Iota refusing 
to gain much latitude, seemingly under the influence of a strong 
ridge.  The new NHC track is nudged southward again, but still 
remains close to where Hurricane Eta made landfall a couple of weeks 
ago.  Iota is expected to dissipate over the high terrain of central 
America before reaching the eastern Pacific.
 
This remains a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua 
with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with 
destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is 
exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the 
exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less 
than two weeks ago.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane
when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and
a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in
effect.
 
2.  Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to 
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions 
of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua 
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta’s recent effects there, 
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 13.6N  82.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 13.7N  83.8W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1800Z 13.8N  85.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0600Z 13.8N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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