ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012020
200 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020

The overall organization of the depression has changed little since
this morning.  Its well-defined but exposed center is displaced
north of the active convection.  Since the organization of the
cyclone is largely unchanged, the initial intensity remains 30 kt
for this advisory.  This is also supported by the latest UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate.

There is no change to the forecast reasoning.  The depression is
still forecast to track generally northwestward today and tonight,
and then turn westward on Sunday.  Although it is not explicitly
shown in the forecast, some minimal short-term strengthening is
possible today and the system could briefly become a tropical storm.
A combination of dry air, increasing shear, and cooler SSTs should
cause the cyclone to weaken by tomorrow, and it will likely become a
remnant low within 36 hours. The remnant low could then persist for
another day or so before dissipating early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 14.5N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 16.1N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.6N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN