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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022020
1000 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020
 
Satellite imagery, including a recently-received Windsat overpass, 
indicates that the depression is gradually becoming better 
organized, with an area of stronger convection forming near the 
better defined center.  Satellite intensity estimates at 00Z were 
near 25 kt, and based on the increased organization since then the 
initial intensity is increased to 30 kt.  Some additional 
strengthening is possible during the next 6-12 h before landfall, 
and the depression could become a tropical storm during that time. 
After landfall, the cyclone is expected to quickly weaken and 
dissipate over the mountains of Central America.
 
The initial motion of 030/5 is somewhat uncertain.  The depression 
is on the east side of a developing large cyclonic gyre over eastern 
Mexico and Central America, as well as being between the subtropical 
ridge and a mid-level trough over central Mexico.  This combination 
of features should steer the cyclone north-northeastward to 
northward until dissipation. The new forecast track is changed 
little from the previous advisory and lies near the various 
consensus models.
 
The main hazard from the system, and the larger gyre, is expected to
be heavy rainfall.  The depression's slow forward motion, large
size, and abundant tropical moisture could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides across portions of Central America and
southern Mexico, and this threat will continue well after the
depression dissipates.  For additional information, see products
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 13.0N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 14.1N  90.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/0000Z 16.1N  90.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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