ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022020 400 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Conventional and scatterometer satellite data indicate that the depression has once again become better organized after a brief hiatus a few hours ago. The intensity has been increased to 35 kt based on recent UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON satellite intensity estimates of 34 kt and 38 kt, respectively. The initial motion estimate is 020/08 kt, which is based on several passive microwave and ASCAT scatterometer fixes. Amanda is embedded within the eastern periphery of a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. The cyclone is expected to remain trapped within the larger gyre for the next few days, resulting in a north-northeastward to northward motion today, followed by a much slower northwestward to westward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the remnant low possibly emerging over the Bay of Campeche on days 2 and 3. The new forecast track is similar to the previous advisory through 24 hours, but additional forecast track positions were added through 72 hours due to the possibility of the system moving over the Bay of Campeche, which could result in the formation of a new tropical cyclone. Little change in strength is expected before landfall occurs. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Central America. However, the large size of the circulation could still produce winds of 20-25 kt over the adjacent waters of the eastern North Pacific, Gulf of Honduras, and the Bay of Campeche for the next 2-3 days. The main hazards from Amanda, and the larger gyre in which the cyclone is embedded, are expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding. Amanda's slow forward motion, large size, and abundant tropical moisture could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across portions of Central America and southern Mexico, and these threats will continue well after Amanda moves inland. For additional information, see products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 13.8N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 15.2N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/0600Z 17.4N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 01/1800Z 18.7N 91.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0600Z 19.0N 92.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 02/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 03/0600Z 18.4N 93.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN