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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Three-E has a 
small and well-defined circulation with the center just to the 
northeast of the main convective mass.  A recent ASCAT-B overpass 
showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center and 20-25 kt 
winds in other parts of the circulation.  Based on this, the 
initial intensity remains 30 kt. 

The initial motion is now 290/8.  There is no change in the 
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  A deep-layer ridge 
to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level 
trough develops to the northwest and west.  This evolution should 
cause the depression to move northwestward between 12-60 h.  After 
that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade 
winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a 
west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period.  
There is some spread in the forward speed between the faster GFS 
and the slower UKMET/ECMWF, and the new official forecast 
compromises between them in a track that is near, but a little 
faster than, the consensus models.
 
There is also no change to the intensity forecast reasoning.  
Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or
so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical
storm during that time.  Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening, and 
most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h.  The 
intensity guidance for this advisory is weaker than the previous 
guidance, so the new intensity forecast, which is little 
changed, now lies near the upper end of the guidance through 72 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 10.6N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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