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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020
 
There has been little change in the organization of the depression
since the previous advisory.  Deep convection that was located over
the southern portion of the circulation waned during the early
afternoon, but a new convective burst has developed within the past
couple of hours to the south of the exposed low-level center.
The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on the earlier
ASCAT data and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.
 
Although the depression is moving over warm waters and within an 
area of low wind shear, water vapor imagery indicates that mid-level 
dry air is located near and just north of the cyclone which is 
likely the cause of the lack of convection over the northern 
portion of the circulation.  As a result, only modest strengthening 
is anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, dry 
air and gradually decreasing SSTs along the forecast track are 
likely to cause weakening.  The latest intensity guidance is 
slightly lower than the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity 
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new official intensity 
forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP corrected 
consensus aid. 

The depression has been moving more westward than expected, with an 
initial motion estimate of 285/8 kt.  A cut-off low well to the 
north-northwest of the depression is expected to weaken the 
deep-layer ridge that is currently steering the cyclone.  This 
should cause the depression to turn northwestward on Thursday, with 
this motion continuing over the next couple of days.  By 60-72 h,
the weakening tropical cyclone should turn back toward the west as 
it is steered by the low-level flow.  Later in the period, the 
remnant low is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the trade 
wind flow over the central Pacific.  The latest track model 
envelope has shifted somewhat southward, which has required a 
southward adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC forecast 
lies between the previous advisory and the latest consensus aids, 
along the northern portion of the guidance envelope. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 10.6N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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