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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020
 
Convection has increased some this morning near the center of 
Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly 
organized.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with 
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with
scatterometer data from several hours ago.

Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the 
intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is 
open for about another 12-24 h.  So, the intensity forecast shows 
slight strengthening during that period.  After that time, 
increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause 
the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low 
by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h.  The new intensity 
forecast is a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is westward or 280/8.  A turn toward the 
west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves 
along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  After that, a 
turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone 
weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering 
mechanism.  The new forecast track is an update of the previous 
forecast and lies the near consensus models.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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