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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020
 
There was a brief burst of deep convection over the estimated 
center of Boris but, overall, the system is not very well 
organized.  The cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to 
northeast which is indicative of significant shear over the 
cyclone.  The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt in agreement 
with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.  Boris will be moving 
through an environment of south-southwesterly shear associated with 
a large upper-level low and associated trough near and to the west 
of 140W.  This shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, 
should cause gradual weakening and Boris will likely degenerate into 
a remnant low over the weekend.  The official intensity forecast is 
the same as the previous one, and similar to the latest DSHIPS and 
LGEM guidance.

Boris appears to have turned back toward a west-northwesterly 
heading and the motion estimate is 290/6 kt.  The cyclone is 
expected to turn westward within the next 12 to 24 hours in 
response to a mid-level ridge to its north.  Thereafter, the 
weakening low should begin to move a little south of west while 
embedded in the low-level trade wind flow.  The official track 
forecast is in reasonable agreement with the latest model consensus.
 
Since Boris is about to cross 140W longitude, it will be moving
into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, 
and this is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Future 
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued 
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, 
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 12.7N 139.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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