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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
 
Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been gradually
increasing in association with Cristina during the past several
hours.  However, the storm still lacks banding features and the
low-level center is located on the northeastern side of the
convection due to moderate wind shear.  An ASCAT-B overpass from a
few hours ago showed maximum winds of only 30-35 kt in the
southeastern quadrant.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for
this advisory blending the ASCAT data with the 3.0/45 kt Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
Cristina is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist air
mass for the next couple of days.  These favorable conditions
combined with lessening wind shear should promote steady
strengthening during the next two days or so.  However, beyond that
time, Cristina is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 C and
into a progressively drier and more stable environment.  These
negative factors for the cyclone should promote weakening after 48
hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast is again nudged downward
from the previous one, but it still lies at the high end of
the guidance in the short term in case Cristina takes advantage of
the generally conducive conditions for intensification.
 
The tropical storm has turned a little to the left recently, but
its longer term motion is still west-northwestward at 13 kt.  A
deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to
remain stationary, and that should cause the cyclone to continue
moving west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the
next 4 days or so.  By the end of the forecast period, a slight
turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system is expected to
be steered by the low-level flow.  The track models are tightly
packed, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 13.9N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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