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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020
 
Satellite images and microwave data indicate that the structure of 
Cristina has improved since this morning. Banding features have 
become more prevalent, while deep convection has persisted over the 
center throughout the day. In addition, the average of the satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB has increased since this 
morning's advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity has been 
raised to 60 kt. 
 
The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification 
through Friday morning, and it is expected to become a hurricane by 
that time. By late Friday, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm 
and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric 
environment. This should result in steady weakening. There is some 
spread in the guidance as to how quickly Cristina will lose its 
convection later on in the forecast period. The GFS suggests this 
will not occur until 120 h, while the Canadian and ECMWF indicate 
this will happen in 96 h and 72 h, respectively. Based on a blend of 
these, Cristina is now expected to become a remnant low by 96 h. The 
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is 
close to the consensus aids. 
 
Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 10 kt. The mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen
a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina
on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over
the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is
expected. The guidance shifted slightly northward beyond day 3, 
so the NHC track forecasted was nudged a little north for that 
time frame. Otherwise, the latest NHC track forecast is little 
changed compared to the previous one. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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