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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Cristina's appearance suggests that the system has gotten better 
organized over relatively cold waters than it ever did over warmer 
waters to the south. The cyclone has a banding eye-like feature, and 
cold cloud tops associated with deep convection have recently come 
close to wrapping all the way around the cyclone's center. Although 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates at 00Z could justify calling 
Cristina a hurricane, the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON is 55 kt, and 
ASCAT data valid around 18Z had max winds of only 45 kt. The initial 
intensity is therefore held at 60 kt as a compromise of the various 
estimates.
 
Cristina is forecast to be over 24 deg C waters in about 12 h and it 
would be surprising if it strengthened overnight. That said, given 
its current satellite appearance and otherwise favorable surrounding 
environment, I can not rule out the possibility that Cristina could 
briefly become a hurricane during the next few hours. In general, 
the NHC intensity forecast has not been substantially changed, and 
Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken for the next few days. 
Various dynamical models indicate that the tropical storm will 
maintain some deep convection for another couple days, and then 
become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.
 
The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving steadily westward
to west-northwestward for the next two to three days, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending across most of the eastern North Pacific.
After that time, the shallow remnant low should continue generally
westward, steered by low-level easterly flow. The models are in
fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is on top of the
multi-model consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 20.1N 116.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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